Cubs Top 15 Prospects

My list of the Cubs top 15 prospects:


 - Check back soon for part 2 (16-25)


1.) Anthony Rizzo (1B, 21):  I'm going to focus on his AAA numbers last year (26 HR, 101 RBI, 1.056 OPS in 356 ABs) and not his numbers with the Padres (.523 OPS, 46 Ks in 126 ABs). Petco Park is a notoriously tough place to hit and in hindsight Rizzo probably wasn't ready for the majors. I expect Rizzo to exorcise his Petco demons at Iowa for at least a half-season and hopefully get back on track for the 25-30 home runs with an acceptable average that most sites were projecting for him last year. 


2.) Brett Jackson (CF, 23): A legit 5-tool player even if none of those five tools are considered ++. Despite Jackson's solid numbers in AAA last year (.297/.388/.551), I've heard considerable concern over Jackson's high strikeout totals (138 Ks in 431 ABs). Jackson has always been young for his level and I think as he is exposed to more high level pitching the strike out numbers will go down. 


3.) Javier Baez (SS, 19): The Cubs first round pick in the 2011 draft (9th overall). Baez is rumored to have some emotional baggage, but his bad speed is off the charts and he projects as a middle of the lineup bat. Baez has the throwing arm to play 3B if he outgrows SS.


4.) Matt Szczur (CF, 22): Has the physical tools to be an ideal top of the order hitter, but his approach and defense need some polish. Szczur (pronounced like "scissor") played QB at Vanderbilt in '09, but put up pretty good numbers across two A-levels in his first full season in the system (.293 AVG, 10 HR, 24 ST). One more year of seasoning and I think Szczur will have a shot playing in Wrigley in '13.


5.) Dan Vogelbach (1B, 19): It's hard not to get excited about a guy with ++ power potential. It's also hard for me to be objective after I saw him put on a power display during batting practice at the AFL last year. I know I'm talking about practice, but scouts seem unanimous that his power is legit and his contact rate projects as above average. The main concern with Vogelbach is his weight. He's generously listed at 250 and he's not tall (6'0). Until I see/hear that he can't handle playing at that weight, I'm going to remain optimistic. 

6.) Welington Castillo (C, 24): Castillo put up a solid .287/.359/.516 slash line in AAA last year and has a cannon arm behind the plate. There are concerns that his glove isn't ready for full-time duty yet, but I'm hopeful the Cubs give him a shot to at least back up Soto this year and potentially make him expendable at the deadline. 

7.) Dillon Maples (SP, 21): The Cubs took advantage of the last year of paying over-slot and seemed to get a steal in the 14th round with Maples. His short-arm throwing motion worries some scouts, but his arsenal of pitches is already impressive and scouting reports say he's very polished for his age. I only have him listed this low because he has yet to pitch in the minors. Maples could be much higher on this list after a full season of work. 

8.) Junior Lake (SS, 21): Has the physical tools to be everyday player in the majors, highlighted by an "80" throwing arm. His approach and fundamentals needs some serious work but take a look at Lake's stats across A+-AA-AFL last year: .285/.324/.470 with 54 steals. Considering that Lake was young for every league he played in, those are impressive numbers. With a year of seasoning and a focus on plate discipline, Lake could move up the list quick. I saw him in the Arizona Fall League and came away impressed. 

9.) Trey McNutt (SP, 22): It's hard to get excited about a guy whose K/9 rate went from 10.2 to 6.2 and whose H/9 jumped from 7.2 to 11.4 in just one season. Maybe he was hurt? He didn't help his cause much by only striking out 8 batters in 18 Arizona Fall League innings. He's still young, so has plenty of time to rediscover the magic, but I'm not getting excited until he starts striking out hitters again. 


10.) Chris Carpenter (RP, 22): I was impressed with Carpenter's stuff during his debut with the Cubs last year. He had some trouble finding the plate, but that can be attributed to nerves, trying too hard, etc. He was electric in the Arizona Fall League and I think he'll be a prominent part of the Cubs bullpen by the end of 2012. With his triple-digit fastball, he has the potential to close for the Cubs down the road if he can iron out his command issues. 


11.) Rafael Dolis (RP, 24): A few statistical red flags (low k rate, high BB rate), but he throws a power sinker in the high 90s and that's pretty rare. His lack of a third pitch will limit him to bullpen duty, but he could be a high-leverage RP for the Cubs by the end of 2012. 

12.) Dae-Eun Rhee (LSP, 22): Just one year removed from TJ surgery, Rhee ended 2011 in dominant fashion posting a 32/5 K/BB ratio over his last 25 innings in high-A. Rhee already has a + change-up and two solid complimentary pitches. He should start the year in AA and if he pitches like he did in late 2011, Rhee could be a candidate for the 2013 rotation with #3 starter upside.


13.) Ben Wells (RSP, 19): Another starter with #3 upside. Wells is a one-trick pony right now, but his one trick is a power sinker that he can locate consistently. He's a few years away, but he has the frame and the sinker to be at worst a successful innings-eater in the majors. 

14.) Ronald Torreyes (2B, 19): Scouting reports are all over the place on Torreyes. I've seen him listed in a top 100 overall list and I've seen him left off of a few Cubs top prospect lists? I think the discrepancy has to due with his diminutive size. There aren't a lot of 5-7, 150 pound major league players out there, but if Torreyes continues to hit at the .364 clip he's put up over his first two seasons, he'll make it to the show. If Torreyes has another impressive year with the bat or grows a little (he's only 19), he'll move up this list quick. 

15.) Josh Vitters (3B, 22): Can he develop plate discipline? On the plus side, he's only 22 and his contact rate is outstanding (54 Ks in 449 ABs). On the negative side he had a 4-1 K/BB ratio, which would be great for a pitcher but not for a corner infielder who only hit 14 home runs. I'm doubtful that Vitters is ever going to be the star he was once projected as, but he could still be a serviceable major leaguer if he learns to take a pitch or two and his power spikes a little. 

*This list is based on multiple reports from the experts, statistical analysis,  limited live scouting, and my very subjective "gut" feeling.