Cubs Rule 5 Recap

As usual, none of my Rule 5 predictions were even close. Most of the targets I thought the Cubs would consider with the 2nd pick weren't even selected by any other teams. I feel a little better since only 4 of top 20 rule 5 prospects on the MLB.com were selected. It's a crap shoot. Anyway, here is a brief scouting report on the Cubs Rule 5 selection, RP Hector Rondon, and an overview of who the Cubs lost.

Hector Rondon  
Throws: Right, Position: RP Age:24
Height: 6' 3", Weight: 180 lb.

Rondon is a former top 10 prospect of the Indians who has struggled to stay healthy the last three years. Rondon made it to AAA in 2010 before his season was derailed with TJ surgery, so before his injury at least he was close to big league ready. Reports have Rondon throwing in the high 90s in winter league ball with good movement so barring another injury, Rondon should be ready to go in spring training and has a good shot to break camp with the Cubs as a power bullpen arm. Here is a scouting report from Scouting Book:
 
A relatively unknown pitcher hidden in the Cleveland system, righthander Hector Rondon uses his darting 93mph fastball and MLB-ready breaking ball heavily, and both are highly effective when he commands them... which is most of the time. He stumbled in an injury-riddled 2010, however, and reinjured his elbow again in 2011. He's being rebuilt this spring, and should begin rehab work in late summer. We won't know if he really has anything left until winter, 2012. (ScoutingBook.com)

I figured the Cubs would select a power arm, but had never heard of Rondon before today. From the reports I've read I'm happy with the pick and excited to see him pitch. On a sad note here is a list of players  the Cubs lost in the Rule 5 draft (majors & minors):

Straling Peralta (Diamondbacks)
Throws: Right, Position: SP Age:22
Height: 6' 4", Weight: 180 lb.

This hurts. Peralta is a high ceiling SP prospect with mid 90s heat and a + slider as his out pitch. He pitched well this year in low A (3.44 ERA, 7.9 K/9) but wasn't dominant and low A is a long way from the bigs. I'm hoping he's far enough away that he doesn't stick on the D-Backs roster, but with 2 + pitches he could be good enough out of the bullpen to stick as a long relief / mop-up guy.

Minor League Rule 5 draft: The double & triple A sections of the draft are basically used for teams to fill organization depth. 

Matt Cerda (Cardinals) - A utility infielder with a great eye (.394 OBP) and little else. Certa has no power (3HR) and little speed (4STL) but can play anywhere in the infield and is a grinder. He'll probably end up making the Cardinals and being an annoying Skip Schumaker type. Just because it's the Cardinals.

Michael Burgess (OF) - A power hitting outfielder with contact issues, Burgess actually cut down his strikeouts considerbaly in 2012 (111 to 56) but it effected his power as his homers dropped from 20 to 10 (90 less ABs). The Cubs are short on power hitting OF prospects, but I don't predict Burgess ever making it to the show.

Alvido Jimenez (RP) -  Put up good numbers in rookie league ball as a reliever (2.64 ERA, 8.8 K/9) but it's his 3rd year in the league and he's already 21. Never heard of him before today.

Cubs Rule 5 Prospects

As we saw last year with Lendy Castillo, Rule 5 players rarely make an impact but there have been a few exceptions over the years (Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla). It's also been rumored that the Cubs have been fielding offers for the 2nd pick, so maybe they will trade the pick for a better prospect that is a few years away and fits better into their competitive timeline (2015 baby!).

As for organizational depth, the Cubs biggest areas of need are starting pitching and corner outfielders. There won't be many starting pitchers available that are even close to major league ready though, so I would expect the cubs to target a lefty hitting OF who could be a bat off the bench this year or a relief pitcher who is almost ready for the bigs (preferably a lefty).

For those unfamiiar with the Rule 5 draft, the player taken has to remain on the team's 25-man roster for the whole season or he is sent back to thier original team. There is some wiggle room though as players can be stashed on the IR with an "injury" or bought from the original team.

The Cubs have the 2nd pick, but unlike most drafts their really is no relaible way to predict who they will take. Last yeat they shocked everyone with thier selection of Lendy Castillo and also lost Ryan Flaherty (Orioles) & Marwin Gonzalez (Astros).

Here is a breakdown of players in order of preference that the Cubs could select:

Ryan Chaffee (RHP)
Throws: Right Age: 24 Team: Angels
After struggling as a starter since being drafted in 2008 (3rd round), Chaffee was switched to the bullpen full-time in 2012. His numbers out of the pen were elite (5.9 H/9, 11.5 K/9, 1.17 WHIP) across high A and AA. It is a small sample size (65 IP) but he throws in the low to mid 90's with a + breaking ball so the stuff and pedigree are there. The Cubs could use him as a mop up guy to start off and eventually transition him into high leverage roles if he continues to pitch well out of the pen.

Josh Fields (RHP)
Throws: Right Age: 27 Team: Red Sox
At 27 he can barely be considered a prospect, but some guys just figure things out a little later than others. Fields averaged 6.2 BB/9 in his minor league career before a subtle change in his delivery allowed him to cut his walk rate to 2.4 BB/9 in 2012 while actually increasing his K rate to 12 per 9 and posting a miniscule .967 WHIP in AA & AAA. If Fields can keep throwing strikes he could be a 6th-7th inning guy right away.

Jeremy Hazelbaker (OF)
Bats: Left Age: 25 Team: Red Sox
Intriguing mix of power and speed (19 HR, 36 STL in 2012), who Epstein should be familiar with since he was drafted by the Red Sox in the 4th round of the 2009 draft. Hazelbaker can play all three OF position and has the physical tools to be an all-star, but lack of plate discipline and inconsistent numbers in the minors make this a high risk / high reward pick When you consider how few Rule 5 players make an impact, all the picks are high risk so why not take the player with the most offensive upside?

John Keck (RHP)
Throws: Left Age: 24 Team:Royals
 A big lefty (6'6) whose plus stuff hasn't translated to solid minor league numbers (career 4.54 era). Keck throws a heavy mid-90s fastball which from a lefty should be enough to keep him on a roster till he's about 38 years old. In the short term he has had some control issues and doesn't strike out as many people as a hard throwing 6'6 lefty should (7.9 K/9 in '12) but his unique skill-set is worthy off a flier and the Cubs are in need of a lefty arm out of the pen to keep Russell's arm from falling off. There are options with higher upside available but Keck fills an immediate need and has the talent to become a valuable lefty out of the pen.

Carlos Perez (LHP)
Throws: Left Age: 21 Team:Braves
 An electric lefty who was a former top prospect in the always loaded Braves system (#5 in 2011), Perez has struggled to harness his dominant stuff. The main problem, as it is with most young pitchers, is control. Perez gave up 6.2 free passes per 9 innings last year which isn't acceptable in the majors. The only reason Perez is on this list is that he was moved to the bullpen in 2012 and responded by striking out 14.7 batters per 9 innings! Those are Rich Hill numbers! (still hurts) Like Lendy Castillo last year, Perez will be hard to keep on the 25-man roster all year but lefty relievers who can strike people out are a premium commodity so it may be worth the gamble.